Russian invasion of Europe 'imminent' as signs build Putin is set to attack, says expert

 Experts have repeatedly raised alarms about a potential future attack on NATO countries by Vladimir Putin's Russia, with two European nations now being identified as possible targets.

Several warning signs have been pointed out, hinting at where a Russian army might strike in any potential future assault, possibly sparking World War Three. These warnings come from various sources including NATO and other defense officials, military analysts, and more.

NATO chief Mark Rutte warned in June that Russia could be prepared to use force against the alliance within the next five years. So, where might Putin strike and what are the indicators? The question comes as Trump calls for Putin talks as 'hellish' Russian drone onslaught on Kyiv kills five.

The Baltic states have been frequently mentioned as a possible starting point for a Russian invasion of NATO territory. There are fears that a future peace agreement in the war with Ukraine, which could allow Russia to maintain control over occupied eastern Ukraine, would embolden Putin's forces and lead to an advance on former members of the Soviet Union, reports the Mirror.

Analysts believe the Baltic states are most vulnerable, with Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia providing Russia with greater sea access and thus potentially posing a risk to the Nordic countries, Poland, and Germany.

According to ex-intelligence officer Philip Ingram, one area could be particularly susceptible to an attack. Ingram referred to the Suwalki Gap, dubbed 'NATO's Achilles heel'.

The 60-mile stretch between Lithuania and Poland represents the quickest path for Russian troops moving from Moscow-allied Belarus to reach the Russian territory of Kaliningrad. Seizing this corridor could isolate the Baltic nations from their NATO partners.

"We're seeing increased Russian military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus, we're seeing snap military drills and unusual troop movements," Ingram told The Sun's Battle Lines Exposed series. He noted there are also indicators of "hybrid warfare" from GPS interference to "little green men... fermenting unrest amongst the Russian speaking minorities."

Military experts in impacted nations are reportedly examining defensive strategies for this area and other Baltic regions, according to Politico.

This involves what's called "bog-based defense", where Europe's waterlogged peatlands could serve as barriers against invading armies. However, only Lithuania's environment ministry has confirmed that restoring wetlands for defensive purposes is "under discussion".

Not all specialists agree about the Suwalki Gap's weakness. In 2022, Alexander Lanoszka, assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Waterloo, told Chatham House that "its real strategic value is limited".

Remember Ukraine

Prior to Putin's comprehensive assault on Ukraine in February 2022, there was a significant military buildup along Ukraine's frontier. A comparable accumulation of forces would signal that Moscow intends to launch an attack.

Months before Russia launched its invasion, there were already concerns being raised. Intelligence played a crucial role.

Earlier in February of that year, then US President Joe Biden warned of a potential Russian invasion and advised Americans to leave Ukraine.

Propaganda

In the lead up to its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin made several false claims. One such claim was that people in Ukraine's Donbas region needed saving from what Putin referred to as a "genocide".

However, there is no evidence to support any genocide committed by Ukraine in the Donbas.

Moscow also claimed that Ukraine needed to be "de-nazified". Yet, when the invasion began, the far right held only one percent of the seats in Ukraine's parliament.

One recurring complaint from Russia, which could potentially serve as a pretext for an attack on NATO, is the expansion of the alliance to its borders. Every member state that has joined since 1990, except Finland and Sweden, was either a member of the Warsaw Pact, a former Soviet Baltic state or part of the former Yugoslavia.

Russia's claims that it was promised in 1990 that this would not happen are at best disputed. NATO refers to it as a "myth".

"This wasn't Nato trying to enlarge, this was countries hammering on the door saying let us in," said Tomas Ries, associate professor at the Swedish national defence college, in an interview with The Guardian.

Hybrid warfare

In the event of a NATO invasion, Russia would likely deploy so-called 'hybrid warfare' tactics before launching any direct assault. This strategy could include escalated strikes on vital infrastructure, particularly underwater sea cables.

During June testimony to the Joint Committee on National Security Strategy, armed forces minister Luke Pollard MP identified the UK's approximately 60 undersea cables as a "target".

"This was not really spoken about a few decades ago, it is now a regular topic of conversation about the overall threat," Mr Pollard stated regarding the cables that handle 99% of data for worldwide communications, internet connectivity and financial dealings.

Former Conservative defense secretary Grant Shapps warned Politico in May that underwater infrastructure - encompassing cables along with gas pipelines and power lines - represents the "soft belly of British security".

On June 25, Mr Pollard also cautioned that Russian naval vessels are "increasingly sailing through the English Channel". He declared: "I have every confidence, as should the British public, that our Royal Navy will continue to defend our waters and keep our undersea cables safe.

Also during June, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that Russia presents a direct danger to the European Union through sabotage operations and cyber assaults. She outlined multiple Russian airspace breaches, threatening military drills, and strikes on power grids, pipelines and underwater cables.

In January of this year, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed concerns over suspected intentional damage to cables in the Baltic Sea. Since 2023, at least 11 have been damaged.

While cable damage is common, the increased frequency of incidents has set off alarm bells.

While Mr. Rutte did not point fingers at Russia, he did caution about the perils of "hybrid warfare", which involves attempts to destabilize countries through actions such as assassinations or attacks on infrastructure.