There’s a reason the world’s most powerful navy struggles in the Strait of Hormuz — and it’s the water itself

 The most powerful navy in history should be able to pry open the world's most important shipping lane. In practice, it's far harder than it looks. The Strait of Hormuz is shallow, noisy, and cramped — exactly where America's warships and sonar lose their edge — and Iran needs only to make passage dangerous, not win. The U.S. could force a corridor open, but keeping it safe would be risky and ruinously expensive. The likeliest ending isn't a victory for either side — it's something messier.

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Iran War Have No Simple Off-Ramps 

Perhaps the most likely future scenario for the ongoing hostilities with Iran is not so much a clean end to the conflict, but rather a mix of limited strikes, continued pressure on shipping, cyber activities, and protracted talks on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran’s nuclear program.

Though a shaky cease-fire may hold for a time, it is not the only plausible scenario.

One Path: Escalation

One route forward could be a contained escalation in which the two sides continue to trade limited attacks, but where both avoid igniting a larger regional war because of the costs to each.

This seems to fit the more recent pattern of scattered, intermittent clashes around Hormuz, disrupted maritime traffic, and pauses in fighting, rather than an all-out invasion or occupation of Iran.

Another path is a much longer standoff where Iran continues to use its arsenal of drones, cruise missiles, fast attack boats, and potentially sea mines to make transiting the Strait of Hormuz high risk, while the United States simultaneously attempts to keep traffic moving through the Strait with naval escort and air cover.

Reuters reports that Iran could sustain disruption of the Strait for a long time to come, making the thorny issue difficult to resolve quickly by force alone.

A potential third option — by no means guaranteed — is a negotiated pause to the conflict or potentially a broader deal. But this will be difficult to achieve given the seemingly irreconcilable differences between the two sides.

Some reports have indicated that a draft deal or nearly finalized arrangements could reopen shipping, ease the blockade of Iran, and tie the Strait of Hormuz directly to negotiations on sanctions and nuclear issues.

Could the United States Reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

While the United States could theoretically open the Strait, primarily through the United States Navy, a full and lasting — and secure — opening would be hugely difficult to achieve should Iran continue to choose to fight.

While Iran doesn’t have the strongest hand here, it does have a few cards, and making the Strait as dangerous as possible is one of them. The United States Navy could escort tankers, clear naval mines, suppress Iranian launch sites, and place an air-defense umbrella over the maritime route in a modernized version of the escort operation during the 1987-1988 Tanker War.

A Layered Approach

Forcing open the Strait of Hormuz permanently would require a multi-pronged approach that includes both military and diplomatic elements.

Naval escorts to protect commercial traffic, robust mine-clearing operations, and strong anti-missile defenses would be absolutely necessary. Intelligence and surveillance, particularly of Iran’s coast along the Strait of Hormuz, would help pressure Iran’s launch platforms and mobile launchers and squeeze Iranian logistics.

But maintaining a diplomatic channel with Iran — despite the uncertainty regarding the degree of control held by Iran’s new supreme leader — could, in theory, afford Tehran a face-saving avenue for backing down from hostilities.

Forcing Open the Strait of Hormuz

The United States could, in short, force open a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for a time, but ensuring its safety would be both risky and expensive.

The opening salvos of Operation Epic Fury, the joint Israeli-American operation against Iran, saw a massive expenditure of precision munitions.

And while that opening push against Iran was an operational success, American lawmakers and analysts have expressed concern that rebuilding the United States' stocks of such munitions will be both costly and slow, potentially crimping the United States' ability to respond to other crises around the globe in the future.

One important caveat is that the United States is less comfortable in the shallow coastal waters of Hormuz than in the open ocean. Large warships need depth and space to maneuver and react.

A Final Potential Scenario

One plausible scenario is not necessarily one side winning, but rather a settlement-type deal in which shipping through the Strait resumes, thanks to a mix of guarantees, some concessions, and monitoring of Iran's missile-launch capabilities.

But if talks collapse, the fallback scenario could be a modern echo of the Tanker War, with a series of strikes on convoys, reprisals, and a hugely expensive effort to keep one of the world’s most important maritime trade corridors open.

Both sides, in essence, hold strong deterrents.

The United States can make the Strait of Hormuz passable, and Iran can make passage dangerous. But both sides would be hard-pressed to find a lasting victory — or perhaps even a post-conflict scenario entirely to their liking.